Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts

Thursday, October 20, 2016

Final Debate and 3rd party responses, pt 2, Immigration, Border Security, Wikileaks, and Russia

Part two of last nights debate, with concurrent twitter responses from Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, Evan McMullin, and Darrell Castle, as well as some commentary and fact checking from me. This segment is on Immigration, border security, and cyberattacks

Debate part 2: Immigration, Border Security, Cyberattacks





Immigration and border security, 3rd party responses:


















Immigration and Border Security, fact checks and commentary:

First of all, Trump loves to talk about immigrants and crime, there's a nice element of fear there to energize his base, but the numbers simply don't support his position. Also, Trump is claiming that ICE has endorsed him, they have not, a Union representing ICE employees has, but that is a different matter than a government agency endorsing a candidate, and an important distinction.

In reference to his comments on Drugs, Stein mentioned it in her twitter responses, and Johnson has discussed it at great length before, the greatest cause for much of the violence surrounding drugs is the drug war itself. Legalization of marijuana and changing the way we address harder drugs will substantially reduce the violence and crime surrounding them. Just as alcohol prohibition created the gangster and the mob, so to does drug prohibition strengthen the cartels. As an example, Portugal.

As both Johnson and Stein have pointed out, better walls make bigger ladders and better tunnels. This isn't to say that we shouldn't have any border security, but that we need to look at policies as a whole, regarding immigration, drug policies, and foreign interventions that create refugee situations.

Now, Hillary rightly points out, as have others, that Trumps plan to deport 11 million undocumented immigrants is...well, nuts...with a large amount of logistical flaws that he has never really answered.

Now, Hillary has kinda been all over the place on immigration, and Trump sorta rightfully points that out. Here's data from the Daily Kos of all sources on how before Trump went full wall, it was Hillary who wanted a fence.

She does correctly reference illegal immigrants used to build the Trump Tower, however, whether Trump knew of their status at the time is another question. As to Obama's deportation rates, Trump is correct, on the numbers anyway, he's incorrect when he says no one is talking about it however.

Now, before we move on to Wikileaks, Russia, and Cyber attacks, I want to point out one more thing that hasn't been addressed much. Hillary's immigration stance has certainly been inconsistent.. However, Trump has also been inconsistent on immigration. In 2012 he criticized Romney and the GOP for being "mean spirited" on immigration and called Romney's immigration policy "crazy" and "maniacal". And in 2013, Trump had a very different opinion on borders and trade than he has now:
"My concern is that the negligence of a few will adversely affect the majority. I've long been a believer in the "look at the solution, not the problem" theory. In this case, the solution is clear. We will have to leave borders behind and go for global unity when it comes to financial stability."

Wikileaks, Russia, Cyber-attacks, 3rd party responses:



 


Fact checks and commentary.

Hillary says that 17 intelligence agencies have confirmed that Russia is behind the Wikileaks information, which is simply not true, but she also uses this is if it makes the information itself untrue. Yes, as I've talked about before, if Russia is actively hacking us and manipulating the election, it is a concern. But it doesn't let her off the hook for information revealed, and the fact that rather than categorically denying or defending it, but trying to ignore it bu shifting focus, is a problem. 

Next, "we've never had anything like this happen" is a downright lie, it happens all the time, we do it to other countries all the time.

Now, within this topic, Trump brings up refugees and terrorists. As is the case with his stats on immigration and crime, his stats on refugees are off the wall as well.

Also of note, Trump mentions how Hillary and Obama "won't even mention...Islamic Terrorism" which is quite false actually.

Next. they wander into Russia and nuclear weapons, and Hillary states that Trump has been rather flippant about nuclear weapons. Trump says "wrong", but the record shows otherwise.

I won't really get into the "who's a puppet" spat, you can come to your own conclusions there...

An interesting deflection from Clinton to avoid wikileaks, and Trump allowed her to do it.

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Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Clinton DNC leaks and Russia

Cannot really do a group of postings on the DNC email hack and not mention the allegations of Russian involvement, as well as some other issues regarding Russia. Now, at the risk of agreeing with Putin, in this instance, we shouldn't dismiss the contents of the emails themselves. Don't get me wrong, a foreign power possibly meddling in our elections is concerning, on the other hand, rather fair play considering the long list of games we've played regarding elections in other countries. If Russian intelligence is meddling, they learned from us, and frankly, from Clinton.

I will say, it is somewhat plausible to see that elements in Russia would certainly prefer a Trump administration to a Clinton one. Trumps foreign policy is scattered and inconsistent, and could very plausibly lead to a weakened NATO, among other things. A Clinton foreign policy, while also terrible, is more consistent, and would leave Russia playing second fiddle to the US. Personally, I'm not very bothered by the US stepping back from playing world superpower. If Trump's foreign policy was less aggressive and more consistent, I mean even be more interested in considering it more attractive. As it stands right now, it's a strange mix of nationalism, protectionism, and aggressive isolationism.

Now, any discussion regarding Russia and foreign policy would be lacking without including the latest reports of Russian officials being told to send any relatives living abroad home, along with growing tensions over operations in Syria. An issue, in my opinion, that we are on the wrong side of, if we must have involvement at all, but that is a complicated matter for another post...the point here is that a part of the growing tensions is over the leaked emails and the possibility of an outright shooting war. Now, certainly, if there is proof, solid proof, that Russian intelligence was actively involved, we may well have some cause to be upset and take diplomatic action. I would also argue we should take it as a taste of our own medicine and stop messing with elections of other sovereign countries. Not to mention, messing with elections and foreign powers favoring one or another candidate is really nothing new, and is hardly a matter worth bloodshed over. 

I will however, say that, in regards to Russia, a hawkish Clinton is likely to further push confrontations, not only continuing our misguided Middle East policies, but in Eastern Europe. An unpredictable Trump might be better, or he might push the button. Or go to the other end of things and declare a "peace in our time" with Putin (I know, I know, Godwins law, sorry...)

Keeping all of this in mind, Johnson stands out as a very attractive option. He would continue to work with and honor NATO alliances, but would seek diplomatic solutions. He would return our focus to our own affairs, but remain consistent regarding foreign engagements. Don't confuse isolationist with non-interventionist. Johnson is the latter, and, I would argue, in these troubling times, the type of leader I would prefer at the helm

It is very likely, from considering her hawkish stances, that warfare would continue under Clinton, and likely lead to direct confrontation with Russia. It is very plausible under a Trump administration that he would cut the strings with NATO entirely, sacrificing Eastern Europe to a new Soviet regime, or that he would swing to the other extreme and just push the button if provoked, he's an unpredictable wildcard that, apparently, Putin and Russia may well prefer. 
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